Analogy
The Ignorance Paradox is like starting a startup.
At first, in order to build out the team, verify the product, and gain traction, substantial time and investment is needed. This early phase is expensive and time-consuming, revenues are typically nonexistent, and the idea and team are likely unproven. This phase is the initial dip shown in the graphic below but, with some hard work, a lot of luck, and proper product-market-founder fit, the company gains traction and takes off.
The Ignorance Paradox is the same in the sense that substantial time and effort, more than most of us are comfortable with, is needed in the early stages of learning something. The utility in knowledge appears “negative” at first because we tend to become overconfident when we learn a little bit, and often the costs outweigh the benefits. However, once you gain enough knowledge and breach the “ignorance barrier,” the payoffs can be handsome.
Diagram
Example
A prime example, because of its notoriety and scale, is Amazon’s AWS. Amazon Web Services is a monster of a business within a monster of a company.1Type in “relentless.com” and see what comes up…
It has astronomical front-heavy fixed costs, but the leadership team knew that if they could gain the requisite scale, that they could leverage that scale over a huge number of customers, spreading out the costs and making it cheap on a per-user basis. Although there is heavy competition from the likes of Microsoft and Google, AWS has so far achieved the scale advantage they were seeking.
Similar to deep fluency of knowledge, AWS required massive investment and a huge amount of time and effort from some of the smartest people in the world, and it still took years before it paid off handsomely. We too must take this long-term gratification mindset and be willing to put in the investment necessary to gain deep fluency.
Plain English
Counterintuitively, a small quantity of knowledge is initially destructive to the utility of knowledge because it can lead to overconfidence.
You might know someone (or maybe it’s you!?) who reads a book or two on a subject and all of a sudden is now an expert? They are falling victim to this term “The Ignorance Paradox” that Peter Kaufman first explained to me.2The Ignorance Paradox also manifests in what is known in psychology as the Dunning-Kruger effect, where the stiffs don’t realize they’re stiffs. We can inoculate ourselves to this unflattering psychological bias through humility. As Socrates said, “I know one thing; that I know nothing.” It is easy to think that because you know more than you used to, that you now know a lot. Not so! It takes a surprising amount of effort and time to breach the “ignorance barrier.”
The Ignorance Paradox will never disappear on its own, so we must expect it and remedy it by forming a proactive habit to counter its insidious effects – honoring both what we know and what we don’t know. It takes substantial effort to breach the “ignorance barrier,” but once you do, you will be riding the exponential curve of utility of knowledge towards mastery/humility.
True masters beautifully and consistently demonstrate this ideal. They know how little they know (although it is more than nearly anyone else), and this makes them humble, open-minded, and always willing to learn – further accelerating their mastery! This is a beautiful and virtuous cycle (Feedback Loops).
The Oracle at Delphi accorded Socrates as the wisest among men because he knew he knew nothing.
A great hack to get a basic understanding of any field is to Google “father/mother of _____,” read their Wikipedia page, and then watch any interviews they’ve conducted. They typically highlight, in great clarity, the main ideas in their tomes – saving you time and effort – allowing you to work “smarter, not harder.”
Some habits to counter The Ignorance Paradox’s adverse effects include:
- Practicing humility – Whenever making an important decision, ask yourself if you are properly knowledgeable or if you’re in the “dangerous trough” of the ignorance paradox. This type of humility leads to openness to learning, while lack of humility closes the mind (Humility, Beginner’s Mind)
- Using independent sources of information – Invert Gresham’s Law, and good information will drive out the bad (Microeconomics)
- Going “incognito” – Get unfiltered information or experience into own or group’s weaknesses and strengths (Boots on the Ground)
- Working smarter, not harder – You can save time by finding interviews with the author or a summary prepared by them, which touches on the “big ideas” rather than reading the entire book. Also, important to look at letters to the editor or the comments section of news stories, blogs, articles, and more (Advantageous Divergence)
- Listening – Set yourself on “receive” rather than “broadcast” (Active Listening)
A corollary to The Ignorance Paradox is the natural human folly of thinking that because you are fluent in one area, that this skill instantly translates into other areas. We’ve seen the disastrous effect this thinking can have on everyone from professional athletes to business moguls like John D. Rockefeller, who consistently lose money on ventures outside of their main areas of expertise.
What is the test for passing The Ignorance Paradox? Can you do the functional equivalent of completing a Sunday edition of the New York Times crossword? This is undoubtedly a high bar, but it is correct. This is frustrating at times but if you’re willing to put in the work, it presents a great opportunity to gain Advantageous Divergence.
Sidebar: Max Planck’s Chauffeur
The story of Max Planck and his chauffeur is worth noting:
I frequently tell the apocryphal story about how Max Planck, after he won the Nobel Prize, went around Germany, giving the same standard lecture on the new quantum mechanics. Over time, his chauffeur memorized the lecture and said, “Would you mind, Professor Planck, because it’s so boring to stay in our routine. [What if] I gave the lecture in Munich, and you just sat in front wearing my chauffeur’s hat?” Planck said, “Why not?” And the chauffeur got up and gave this long lecture on quantum mechanics. After which, a physics professor stood up and asked a perfectly ghastly question. The speaker said, “Well I’m surprised that in an advanced city like Munich I get such an elementary question. I’m going to ask my chauffeur to reply.”
– Charlie Munger, 2007 USC Gould School of Law Commencement Speech
“Well I’m surprised that in an advanced city like Munich I get such an elementary question. I’m going to ask my chauffeur to reply.“
You must determine if you are Max Planck or the chauffeur. True experts delineate their circle of competence, know when they are in uncharted territory and are always seeking to expand it.
Do you have deep or surface-level knowledge? The point is, can you answer the next question?
Technical Description
The Ignorance Paradox is the understanding that a small quantum of knowledge is dangerous because it can breed overconfidence and a closed mindset. We must expect this dip in utility and become fluent enough so that we can escape its gravitational hold, achieving escape velocity so that we can breach the ignorance barrier.
Quotes
The greater the ignorance, the greater the dogmatism.
Be on the lookout for chauffeur knowledge. Do not confuse the company spokesperson, the ringmaster, the newscaster, the schmoozer, the verbiage vendor, or the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge. How do you recognize the difference? There is a clear indicator: True experts recognize the limits of what they know and what they do not know. If they find themselves outside their circle of competence, they keep quiet or simply say, “I don’t know.” This they utter unapologetically, even with a certain pride. From chauffeurs, we hear every line except this.
– Rolf Dobelli, The Art of Thinking Clearly
Once again, a wide spread misinterpretation of a result because of a lack of understanding of the basics behind the mathematical tool, and only knowing the tool itself. A little knowledge is a dangerous thing—especially if you lack the fundamentals!
– Richard Hamming, Learning to Learn
Education makes the wise slightly wiser, but it makes the fool vastly more dangerous.
– Nassim Taleb, Bed of Procrustes
Nothing is so firmly believed as what we least know.
– Michel de Montaigne, Essays
Any fool can know. The point is to understand.
The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.
– William Butler Yeats, The Second Coming
Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance.
It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
Simple solutions seldom are. It takes a very unusual mind to undertake analysis of the obvious.
Bullshit is unavoidable whenever circumstances require someone to talk without knowing what he is talking about.
– Harry Frankfurt, On Bullshit
A little learning is a dang’rous thing;
Drink deep, or taste not the Pierian spring:
There shallow draughts intoxicate the brain,
And drinking largely sobers us again.
– Alexander Pope, An Essay on Criticism
Interconnected Ideas
Recommended Books & Resources
